A Mild Winter

The first of February and there’s no snow on the ground but for the scant remnants of weeks-ago plowed and shoveled piles on the curbs and beside drives. The streets and sidewalks are dry. The temperatures have been in the 40s and 50s, and the forecast for the next couple of weeks is for 30s and 40s and little precipitation except for some rain and snow mix, though that should melt off by afternoon. A year ago today we had a storm go through that dumped 18.5 inches of snow in two days. It was frigid. Everything was closed, no one moved. Of course, last year’s storm was no more a refutation of climate change than this year’s mild temperatures and lack of snow are confirmation. There’s a difference between climate and weather. We just bump around from year to year, from extreme to extreme, always awed by each year’s deviation from some imagined average, when we should be awed by the unpredictable, by the unexpected, by the unknown that is what makes up the day-to-day and year-to-year of weather and of life.

The Normal Abnormal Weather

Watching or listening to the weather on TV or radio, especially this time of year, yields a particularly strange use of the English language in relation to reality. Any particular day’s high or low temperature is always compared with the “normal” high or low temperature for the day. Of course, by “normal” they really mean “average,” because the actual normal is at least 5° and often 10° above or below the average. And so more often than not there is surprise, pleasant or unpleasant, in the weatherperson’s report of the day’s deviation from the “normal.” Today, for example, we’re experiencing “abnormally” warm temperatures in Iowa for December 29 – a balmy 53° against the more chilly average (weatherperson’s “normal”) of 31°. But if you look over the high temperatures for the past 16 years for Iowa City, you soon see that today’s high is not all that abnormal:

2011 - 53° 2010 - 35° 2009 - 19° 2008 - 26° 2007 - 26° 2006 - 56° 2005 - 36° 2004 - 41°

2003 - 35° 2002 - 50° 2001 - 15° 2000 - 19° 1999 - 54° 1998 - 37° 1997 - 30° 1996 - 21°

Only 3 of these highs are within 5° of the average (or “normal”), only 9 are within 10°, but 7 (almost half) are plus or minus 10° or more (3 plus 20°). So as with most in life it turns out that the “normal” is actually the “abnormal.” Surprise.

Wind Chill

We’ve reached the wind chill season when the temperatures are below 50-degrees and the TV meteorologists (“A meteor fell from the sky, hit me in the head, and so I’m qualified to predict the weather.”) begin to factor in the wind chill in their forecasts. “Well, Phil, it should get down to 30 degrees tonight, but the winds should be brisk at about 10 miles per hour, so it will feel closer to a chilly 20 degrees.” What they don’t say is that it only feels that cold if you’re standing out in a field in the nude. Wind chill is a bogus measurement meant to place fear in the hearts of the public and boost the ratings of the local TV station. Fact is it’s only as cold as it is. If you’re stupid enough to go outside and stand in a field in 30-degree temperatures with nothing on, you deserve to freeze as many body parts as you can. The only forecast in the cold of winter should be: “Stay indoors with the heat on, a fire if you’ve got it, and if you have to go out, dress for it. . . . And soup is always good.”